Context matters: Improving the uses of big data for forecasting civil unrest: Emerging phenomena and big data

Pedro Manrique, Hong Qi, Ana Morgenstern, Nicolas Velasquez, Tsai Ching Lu, Neil F Johnson

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

Open Source Indicators (OSI) such as Google Trends (GT) promise to uncover the social dynamics associated with behavior that precede episodes of civil unrest. There are myriad reasons why societies may become unstable: Our analysis does not require or inquire the underlying reasons for discontent but instead takes into account differences associated with variegated social contexts. This paper examines instances of this volatile behavior and suggests a simple model for predicting civil unrest events using GT as an open source indicator (OSI). It grounds the possibilities for prediction on the fact that social processes occur within a particular social context. As such, paying attention to the particular signals associated from each country is an important moderator for any model keen on predicting cases of extreme social behavior such as civil unrest.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationIEEE ISI 2013 - 2013 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Big Data, Emergent Threats, and Decision-Making in Security Informatics
Pages169-172
Number of pages4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013
Event11th IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, IEEE ISI 2013 - Seattle, WA, United States
Duration: Jun 4 2013Jun 7 2013

Other

Other11th IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics, IEEE ISI 2013
CountryUnited States
CitySeattle, WA
Period6/4/136/7/13

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Keywords

  • big data
  • civil unrest
  • emerging phenomena
  • open source indicator
  • prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems

Cite this

Manrique, P., Qi, H., Morgenstern, A., Velasquez, N., Lu, T. C., & Johnson, N. F. (2013). Context matters: Improving the uses of big data for forecasting civil unrest: Emerging phenomena and big data. In IEEE ISI 2013 - 2013 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Big Data, Emergent Threats, and Decision-Making in Security Informatics (pp. 169-172). [6578812] https://doi.org/10.1109/ISI.2013.6578812