Abstract
We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 217-239 |
| Number of pages | 23 |
| Journal | Climatic Change |
| Volume | 84 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 2007 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Atmospheric Science
- Environmental Science(all)
- Environmental Chemistry
- Global and Planetary Change
Cite this
Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil : Societal trends and forecast value. / Broad, Kenneth; Pfaff, Alexander; Taddei, Renzo; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; DeAssisDeSouza Filho, Franciso.
In: Climatic Change, Vol. 84, No. 2, 09.2007, p. 217-239.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil
T2 - Societal trends and forecast value
AU - Broad, Kenneth
AU - Pfaff, Alexander
AU - Taddei, Renzo
AU - Sankarasubramanian, A.
AU - Lall, Upmanu
AU - DeAssisDeSouza Filho, Franciso
PY - 2007/9
Y1 - 2007/9
N2 - We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.
AB - We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=36148929037&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=36148929037&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-007-9257-0
DO - 10.1007/s10584-007-9257-0
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:36148929037
VL - 84
SP - 217
EP - 239
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 2
ER -