Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: Societal trends and forecast value

Kenneth Broad, Alexander Pfaff, Renzo Taddei, A. Sankarasubramanian, Upmanu Lall, Franciso DeAssisDeSouza Filho

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)217-239
Number of pages23
JournalClimatic Change
Volume84
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2007

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Stream flow
Water management
streamflow
water management
Water
climate
prediction
water
valley
risk perception
capital city
Risk perception
qualitative analysis
water demand
fieldwork
forecast
trend
allocation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Environmental Chemistry
  • Global and Planetary Change

Cite this

Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil : Societal trends and forecast value. / Broad, Kenneth; Pfaff, Alexander; Taddei, Renzo; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; DeAssisDeSouza Filho, Franciso.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 84, No. 2, 09.2007, p. 217-239.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Broad, K, Pfaff, A, Taddei, R, Sankarasubramanian, A, Lall, U & DeAssisDeSouza Filho, F 2007, 'Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: Societal trends and forecast value', Climatic Change, vol. 84, no. 2, pp. 217-239. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9257-0
Broad, Kenneth ; Pfaff, Alexander ; Taddei, Renzo ; Sankarasubramanian, A. ; Lall, Upmanu ; DeAssisDeSouza Filho, Franciso. / Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil : Societal trends and forecast value. In: Climatic Change. 2007 ; Vol. 84, No. 2. pp. 217-239.
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