Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Katharine J. Mach, Caroline M. Kraan, W. Neil Adger, Halvard Buhaug, Marshall Burke, James D. Fearon, Christopher B. Field, Cullen S. Hendrix, Jean Francois Maystadt, John O’Loughlin, Philip Roessler, Jürgen Scheffran, Kenneth A. Schultz, Nina von Uexkull

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

113 Scopus citations

Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)193-197
Number of pages5
JournalNature
Volume571
Issue number7764
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 11 2019
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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