Introduction: Preoperative quantification of survival after transplantation would assist in assessing patients. We have developed a preliminary preoperative scoring system, called the Cambridge-Miami (CaMi) score, for transplantation of the small intestine either alone or as a composite graft. Methods: The score combines putative risk factors for early-, medium-, and long-term survival. Factors included were loss of venous access and impairment of organs or systems not corrected by transplantation. Each factor was scored 0-3. A score of 3 indicated comorbidity approaching a contraindication for transplantation, that which might lead to but was not currently an adverse risk factor scored 1, and that presenting a definite but moderate increase in risk scored 2. The preoperative scores of 20 patients who had received intestinal transplants either isolated or as part of a cluster graft, who had either been followed up postoperatively for at least 10 years, or died within 10 years were compared with their survivals. Results: Postoperative survival and CaMi score inversely correlated when analysed using Spearman test (rs = -0.82; P = .0001). A score of <3 associated with survival ≥3 years (12/12 patients) and >3 with survival of <6 months (4/4). Patient Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curves for patients grouped according to CaMi score became significantly different from group 0 to group 3. Using this as a threshold score patients grouped as either >2 or <3 had significantly different survival rates (log-rank; P = .0001), KM median survival hazard ratio (HR) = 6, and rate of death KM HR = 5. Receiver-operator characteristics indicate a high degree of accuracy for prediction of death with an area under the curve (C statistic) at 3 years of 0.98, at 5 years of 0.82, and at 10 years of 0.65. Conclusion: This initial validation suggested that the preoperative CaMi score predicted postoperative survival.
|Number of pages||3|
|State||Published - Jan 1 2010|
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