TY - JOUR
T1 - Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia
AU - Ye, Yimin
AU - Loneragan, Neil
AU - Die, David
AU - Watson, Reg
AU - Harch, Bronwyn
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the Steering Committee of the Enhancement Project, George Kailis, James Penn, Ian Poiner, and Peter Rothlisberg, and the Enhancement Project team members for constructive discussions during the project. We would also like to thank Francis Pantus and Rodrigo Bustamante, and two anonymous reviewers for their very constructive comments, which substantially improved the manuscript. Particular thanks to Roger Barnard for providing estimates of production costs in Exmouth Gulf. Funding for this project was provided by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation of Australia (FRDC 1998/222 and 1999/222).
PY - 2005/6
Y1 - 2005/6
N2 - A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.
AB - A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.
KW - Bioeconomic modelling
KW - Penaeus esculentus
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Stock enhancement
KW - Tiger prawn
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U2 - 10.1016/j.fishres.2004.12.004
DO - 10.1016/j.fishres.2004.12.004
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:17444392898
VL - 73
SP - 231
EP - 249
JO - Fisheries Research
JF - Fisheries Research
SN - 0165-7836
IS - 1-2
ER -