Abstract
In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 605-623 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Journal | Journal of Biological Systems |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 1 2017 |
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Keywords
- Avian Influenza A H7N9 Virus
- Basic Reproduction Number
- Reassortment
- Seasonal Influenza
- Transmission Dynamics
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Ecology
- Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
- Applied Mathematics
Cite this
AVIAN INFLUENZA A H7N9 VIRUS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED in China. / Zhang, Xinan; Zou, Lan; Chen, Jing; Fang, Yile; Huang, Jicai; Zhang, Jinhui; Liu, Sanhong; Feng, Guangting; Yang, Cuihong; Ruan, Shigui.
In: Journal of Biological Systems, Vol. 25, No. 4, 01.12.2017, p. 605-623.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - AVIAN INFLUENZA A H7N9 VIRUS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED in China
AU - Zhang, Xinan
AU - Zou, Lan
AU - Chen, Jing
AU - Fang, Yile
AU - Huang, Jicai
AU - Zhang, Jinhui
AU - Liu, Sanhong
AU - Feng, Guangting
AU - Yang, Cuihong
AU - Ruan, Shigui
PY - 2017/12/1
Y1 - 2017/12/1
N2 - In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.
AB - In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.
KW - Avian Influenza A H7N9 Virus
KW - Basic Reproduction Number
KW - Reassortment
KW - Seasonal Influenza
KW - Transmission Dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85039169205&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85039169205&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1142/S0218339017400095
DO - 10.1142/S0218339017400095
M3 - Article
VL - 25
SP - 605
EP - 623
JO - Journal of Biological Systems
JF - Journal of Biological Systems
SN - 0218-3390
IS - 4
ER -