TY - JOUR
T1 - AVIAN INFLUENZA A H7N9 VIRUS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED in China
AU - Zhang, Xinan
AU - Zou, Lan
AU - Chen, Jing
AU - Fang, Yile
AU - Huang, Jicai
AU - Zhang, Jinhui
AU - Liu, Sanhong
AU - Feng, Guangting
AU - Yang, Cuihong
AU - Ruan, Shigui
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11071275, 11201324, 11471133 and 11771168) and National Science Foundation (DMS-1412454).
Funding Information:
We would like to thank the two reviewers and the handling editor for their comments and suggestions which helped us to improve the presentation of the paper. This work was partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11071275, 11201324, 11471133 and 11771168) and National Science Foundation (DMS-1412454).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2017 World Scientific Publishing Company.
PY - 2017/12/1
Y1 - 2017/12/1
N2 - In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.
AB - In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of R0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.
KW - Avian Influenza A H7N9 Virus
KW - Basic Reproduction Number
KW - Reassortment
KW - Seasonal Influenza
KW - Transmission Dynamics
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U2 - 10.1142/S0218339017400095
DO - 10.1142/S0218339017400095
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85039169205
VL - 25
SP - 605
EP - 623
JO - Journal of Biological Systems
JF - Journal of Biological Systems
SN - 0218-3390
IS - 4
ER -