Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes

Richard P. Allan, Brian J. Soden

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

800 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate models suggest that extreme precipitation events will become more common in an anthropogenically warmed climate. However, observational limitations have hindered a direct evaluation of model-projected changes in extreme precipitation. We used satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. These observations reveal a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature, with heavy rain events increasing during warm periods and decreasing during cold periods. Furthermore, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than that predicted by models, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes in response to anthropogenic global warming may be underestimated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1481-1484
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume321
Issue number5895
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 12 2008

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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