Atlantic near-term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream

Leo Siqueira, Ben P. Kirtman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

41 Scopus citations


There is a continually increasing demand for near-term (i.e., lead times up to a couple of decades) climate information. This demand is partly driven by the need to have robust forecasts and is partly driven by the need to assess how much of the ongoing climate change is due to natural variability and how much is due to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases or other external factors. Here we discuss results from a set of state-of-the-art climate model experiments in comparison with observational estimates that show that an assessment of predictability requires models that capture the variability of major oceanic fronts, which are, at best, poorly resolved and may even be absent in the near-term prediction of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change class models. This is the first time that air-sea interactions associated with resolved Gulf Stream sea surface temperature have been identified in the context of a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model with inferred near-term predictability.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3964-3972
Number of pages9
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number8
StatePublished - Apr 28 2016


  • Climate Dynamics
  • Near-term Climate Predictability
  • Near-term Climate Variability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)


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