Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern oscillation

Guillermo P Podesta, Carlos D. Messina, Martín O. Grondona, Graciela O. Magrin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

86 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Associations are investigated between yields of major crops in the Argentine Pampas (central-eastern Argentina) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. For maize and sorghum, higher (lower) yield anomalies occur more frequently than expected by chance alone during warm (cold) ENSO events. For both crops, the depression of yields during cold events is, on average, larger and less variable than yield increases are during warm events. A yield decrease during cold events also is observed in soybean yields, although the effect of warm events is not statistically significant. There is a marginally significant tendency for low sunflower yields to occur less frequently than expected during cold events. Wheat, the only winter crop considered, did not show an association with ENSO. Precipitation anomalies during October-February (the period with strongest ENSO signal in the Pampas) are summarized through principal component analysis. Precipitation anomalies during November-January are significantly correlated with maize, sorghum, and soybean yield anomalies. In turn, those precipitation anomalies show a distinct ENSO signal. Late spring-early summer precipitation, then, appears to mediate associations between ENSO phase and yields of maize, sorghum, and soybean in the Pampas.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1488-1498
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Applied Meteorology
Volume38
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 1999

Fingerprint

Southern Oscillation
crop yield
cereal
anomaly
sorghum
soybean
maize
crop
principal component analysis
wheat
cold
winter
summer

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern oscillation. / Podesta, Guillermo P; Messina, Carlos D.; Grondona, Martín O.; Magrin, Graciela O.

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 38, No. 10, 10.1999, p. 1488-1498.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Podesta, Guillermo P ; Messina, Carlos D. ; Grondona, Martín O. ; Magrin, Graciela O. / Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern oscillation. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology. 1999 ; Vol. 38, No. 10. pp. 1488-1498.
@article{2ada01a2f3db4fd096a106a11c910ddf,
title = "Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Ni{\~n}o-Southern oscillation",
abstract = "Associations are investigated between yields of major crops in the Argentine Pampas (central-eastern Argentina) and El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. For maize and sorghum, higher (lower) yield anomalies occur more frequently than expected by chance alone during warm (cold) ENSO events. For both crops, the depression of yields during cold events is, on average, larger and less variable than yield increases are during warm events. A yield decrease during cold events also is observed in soybean yields, although the effect of warm events is not statistically significant. There is a marginally significant tendency for low sunflower yields to occur less frequently than expected during cold events. Wheat, the only winter crop considered, did not show an association with ENSO. Precipitation anomalies during October-February (the period with strongest ENSO signal in the Pampas) are summarized through principal component analysis. Precipitation anomalies during November-January are significantly correlated with maize, sorghum, and soybean yield anomalies. In turn, those precipitation anomalies show a distinct ENSO signal. Late spring-early summer precipitation, then, appears to mediate associations between ENSO phase and yields of maize, sorghum, and soybean in the Pampas.",
author = "Podesta, {Guillermo P} and Messina, {Carlos D.} and Grondona, {Mart{\'i}n O.} and Magrin, {Graciela O.}",
year = "1999",
month = "10",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "38",
pages = "1488--1498",
journal = "Journal of Applied Meteorology",
issn = "0894-8763",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "10",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Associations between grain crop yields in Central-Eastern Argentina and El Niño-Southern oscillation

AU - Podesta, Guillermo P

AU - Messina, Carlos D.

AU - Grondona, Martín O.

AU - Magrin, Graciela O.

PY - 1999/10

Y1 - 1999/10

N2 - Associations are investigated between yields of major crops in the Argentine Pampas (central-eastern Argentina) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. For maize and sorghum, higher (lower) yield anomalies occur more frequently than expected by chance alone during warm (cold) ENSO events. For both crops, the depression of yields during cold events is, on average, larger and less variable than yield increases are during warm events. A yield decrease during cold events also is observed in soybean yields, although the effect of warm events is not statistically significant. There is a marginally significant tendency for low sunflower yields to occur less frequently than expected during cold events. Wheat, the only winter crop considered, did not show an association with ENSO. Precipitation anomalies during October-February (the period with strongest ENSO signal in the Pampas) are summarized through principal component analysis. Precipitation anomalies during November-January are significantly correlated with maize, sorghum, and soybean yield anomalies. In turn, those precipitation anomalies show a distinct ENSO signal. Late spring-early summer precipitation, then, appears to mediate associations between ENSO phase and yields of maize, sorghum, and soybean in the Pampas.

AB - Associations are investigated between yields of major crops in the Argentine Pampas (central-eastern Argentina) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. For maize and sorghum, higher (lower) yield anomalies occur more frequently than expected by chance alone during warm (cold) ENSO events. For both crops, the depression of yields during cold events is, on average, larger and less variable than yield increases are during warm events. A yield decrease during cold events also is observed in soybean yields, although the effect of warm events is not statistically significant. There is a marginally significant tendency for low sunflower yields to occur less frequently than expected during cold events. Wheat, the only winter crop considered, did not show an association with ENSO. Precipitation anomalies during October-February (the period with strongest ENSO signal in the Pampas) are summarized through principal component analysis. Precipitation anomalies during November-January are significantly correlated with maize, sorghum, and soybean yield anomalies. In turn, those precipitation anomalies show a distinct ENSO signal. Late spring-early summer precipitation, then, appears to mediate associations between ENSO phase and yields of maize, sorghum, and soybean in the Pampas.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0033370327&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0033370327&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 38

SP - 1488

EP - 1498

JO - Journal of Applied Meteorology

JF - Journal of Applied Meteorology

SN - 0894-8763

IS - 10

ER -