Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control.

Juan Zhang, Zhen Jin, Gui Quan Sun, Tao Zhou, Shigui Ruan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

74 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text] in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalPLoS One
Volume6
Issue number7
StatePublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Rabies
rabies
Immunization
China
Dogs
dogs
culling (animals)
immunization
Public health
Medical problems
Sensitivity analysis
Health
Basic Reproduction Number
birth rate
Birth Rate
control methods
simulation models
public health
Public Health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Zhang, J., Jin, Z., Sun, G. Q., Zhou, T., & Ruan, S. (2011). Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control. PLoS One, 6(7).

Analysis of rabies in China : transmission dynamics and control. / Zhang, Juan; Jin, Zhen; Sun, Gui Quan; Zhou, Tao; Ruan, Shigui.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 6, No. 7, 2011.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Zhang, J, Jin, Z, Sun, GQ, Zhou, T & Ruan, S 2011, 'Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control.', PLoS One, vol. 6, no. 7.
Zhang, Juan ; Jin, Zhen ; Sun, Gui Quan ; Zhou, Tao ; Ruan, Shigui. / Analysis of rabies in China : transmission dynamics and control. In: PLoS One. 2011 ; Vol. 6, No. 7.
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