An investigation of crash avoidance in a complex system

Michael L. Hart, David Lamper, Neil F. Johnson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Complex systems can exhibit unexpected large changes, e.g. a crash in a financial market. We examine the large endogenous changes arising within a non-trivial generalization of the minority game: the grand canonical minority game. Using a Markov-Chain description, we study the many possible paths the system may take. This ‘many-worlds’ view not only allows us to predict the start and end of a crash in this system, but also to investigate how such a crash may be avoided. We find that the system can be ‘immunized’ against large changes: by inducing small changes today, much larger changes in the future can be prevented.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)649-661
Number of pages13
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume316
Issue number1-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 15 2002

Keywords

  • Agent-based models
  • Complex adaptive systems
  • Econophysics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Condensed Matter Physics

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