Abstract
Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 9411-9415 |
| Number of pages | 5 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue number | 21 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Nov 16 2015 |
Fingerprint
Keywords
- ensemble forecast
- ENSO
- forecast spread
- stochastic processes
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Geophysics
Cite this
An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread : Application to the 2014 forecast. / Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Benjamin.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, No. 21, 16.11.2015, p. 9411-9415.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread
T2 - Application to the 2014 forecast
AU - Larson, Sarah M.
AU - Kirtman, Benjamin
PY - 2015/11/16
Y1 - 2015/11/16
N2 - Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.
AB - Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.
KW - ensemble forecast
KW - ENSO
KW - forecast spread
KW - stochastic processes
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84954467682&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84954467682&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2015GL066173
DO - 10.1002/2015GL066173
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84954467682
VL - 42
SP - 9411
EP - 9415
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 21
ER -