A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission

Jean Marc O Depinay, Charles M. Mbogo, Gerry Killeen, Bart Knols, John C Beier, John Carlson, Jonathan Dushoff, Peter Billingsley, Henry Mwambi, John Githure, Abdoulaye M. Toure, F. Ellis McKenzie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

131 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases in humans. Many mathematical models of malaria have been developed during the past century, and applied to potential interventions. However, malaria remains uncontrolled and is increasing in many areas, as are vector and parasite resistance to insecticides and drugs. Methods: This study presents a simulation model of African malaria vectors. This individual-based model incorporates current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics and their relations to the environment. One of its main strengths is that it is based on both biological and environmental variables. Results: The model made it possible to structure existing knowledge, assembled in a comprehensive review of the literature, and also pointed out important aspects of basic Anopheles biology about which knowledge is lacking. One simulation showed several patterns similar to those seen in the field, and made it possible to examine different analyses and hypotheses for these patterns; sensitivity analyses on temperature, moisture, predation and preliminary investigations of nutrient competition were also conducted. Conclusions: Although based on some mathematical formulae and parameters, this new tool has been developed in order to be as explicit as possible, transparent in use, close to reality and amenable to direct use by field workers. It allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments. It points out many important areas for new investigations that will be critical to effective, efficient, sustainable interventions.

Original languageEnglish
Article number29
JournalMalaria Journal
Volume3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 30 2004

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Anopheles
Population Dynamics
Ecology
Malaria
Insecticide Resistance
Drug Resistance
Health Personnel
Communicable Diseases
Parasites
Theoretical Models
Food
Temperature

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)

Cite this

A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. / Depinay, Jean Marc O; Mbogo, Charles M.; Killeen, Gerry; Knols, Bart; Beier, John C; Carlson, John; Dushoff, Jonathan; Billingsley, Peter; Mwambi, Henry; Githure, John; Toure, Abdoulaye M.; McKenzie, F. Ellis.

In: Malaria Journal, Vol. 3, 29, 30.07.2004.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Depinay, JMO, Mbogo, CM, Killeen, G, Knols, B, Beier, JC, Carlson, J, Dushoff, J, Billingsley, P, Mwambi, H, Githure, J, Toure, AM & McKenzie, FE 2004, 'A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission', Malaria Journal, vol. 3, 29. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-29
Depinay, Jean Marc O ; Mbogo, Charles M. ; Killeen, Gerry ; Knols, Bart ; Beier, John C ; Carlson, John ; Dushoff, Jonathan ; Billingsley, Peter ; Mwambi, Henry ; Githure, John ; Toure, Abdoulaye M. ; McKenzie, F. Ellis. / A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission. In: Malaria Journal. 2004 ; Vol. 3.
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