A risk score for type 1 diabetes derived from autoantibody-positive participants in the diabetes prevention trial-type 1

Jay M Sosenko, Jeffrey P. Krischer, Jerry P. Palmer, Jeffrey Mahon, Catherine Cowie, Carla J. Greenbaum, David Cuthbertson, John M. Lachin, Jay S Skyler

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE - The accurate prediction of type 1 diabetes is essential for appropriately identifying prevention trial participants. Thus, we have developed a risk score for the prediction of type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DFT-1) participants, islet cell autoantibody (ICA)-positive relatives of type 1 diabetic patients (n = 670), were randomly divided into development and validation samples. Risk score values were calculated for the validation sample from development sample model coefficients obtained through forward stepwise proportional hazards regression. RESULTS - A risk score based on a model including log-BMI, age, log-fasting C-peptide, and postchallenge glucose and C-peptide sums from 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) was derived from the development sample. The baseline risk score strongly predicted type 1 diabetes in the validation sample (χ 2 = 82.3, P < 0.001). Its strength of prediction was almost the same (χ 2 = 83.3) as a risk score additionally dependent on a decreased first-phase insulin response variable from intravenous glucose tolerance tests (IVGTTs). Biochemical autoantibodies did not contribute significantly to the risk score model. A final type 1 diabetes risk score was then derived from all participants with the same variables as those in the development sample model. The change in the type 1 diabetes risk score from baseline to 1 year was in itself also highly predictive of type 1 diabetes (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS - A risk score based on age, BMI, and OGTT indexes, without dependence on IVGTTs or additional autoantibodies, appears to accurately predict type 1 diabetes in ICA-positive relatives.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)528-533
Number of pages6
JournalDiabetes Care
Volume31
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 1 2008

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Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus
Autoantibodies
Glucose Tolerance Test
C-Peptide
Islets of Langerhans
Fasting
Research Design
Insulin
Glucose

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Advanced and Specialized Nursing

Cite this

A risk score for type 1 diabetes derived from autoantibody-positive participants in the diabetes prevention trial-type 1. / Sosenko, Jay M; Krischer, Jeffrey P.; Palmer, Jerry P.; Mahon, Jeffrey; Cowie, Catherine; Greenbaum, Carla J.; Cuthbertson, David; Lachin, John M.; Skyler, Jay S.

In: Diabetes Care, Vol. 31, No. 3, 01.03.2008, p. 528-533.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sosenko, JM, Krischer, JP, Palmer, JP, Mahon, J, Cowie, C, Greenbaum, CJ, Cuthbertson, D, Lachin, JM & Skyler, JS 2008, 'A risk score for type 1 diabetes derived from autoantibody-positive participants in the diabetes prevention trial-type 1', Diabetes Care, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 528-533. https://doi.org/10.2337/dc07-1459
Sosenko, Jay M ; Krischer, Jeffrey P. ; Palmer, Jerry P. ; Mahon, Jeffrey ; Cowie, Catherine ; Greenbaum, Carla J. ; Cuthbertson, David ; Lachin, John M. ; Skyler, Jay S. / A risk score for type 1 diabetes derived from autoantibody-positive participants in the diabetes prevention trial-type 1. In: Diabetes Care. 2008 ; Vol. 31, No. 3. pp. 528-533.
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