A Proposed Model for the Prediction of Response to Endocrine Therapy in Breast Cancer from the Estrogen Receptor Status of One Site and the Number of Metastatic Sites

Joseph C. Allegra, William D. De Wys, Richard Simon, Marc E. Lippman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Scopus citations


A mathematical model for prediction of response to endocrine therapy of breast cancer has been developed based on a clonal concept of metastatic spread. The model includes an expression of the likelihood of response of an estrogen receptor-positive site and an expression of the concordance of receptor assays when multiple sites are assayed. Both of these are raised to a power function based on the number of sites of metastases to yield a predicted response rate. An excellent fit of the predictions of this mathematical model and response data from a series of patients receiving endocrine therapy was observed. This model provides a worthwhile insight into the biology of response to endocrine therapy. The model may be extended and refined through additional analyses.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2423-2427
Number of pages5
JournalCancer Research
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 1 1980


ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

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