Abstract
Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 6043-6050 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue number | 14 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 28 2015 |
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Keywords
- climatology
- hurricane
- predictability
- predictive skill
- rapid intensification
- tropical cyclone
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Geophysics
Cite this
A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts. / Judt, Falko; Chen, Shuyi S.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, No. 14, 28.07.2015, p. 6043-6050.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts
AU - Judt, Falko
AU - Chen, Shuyi S
PY - 2015/7/28
Y1 - 2015/7/28
N2 - Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).
AB - Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).
KW - climatology
KW - hurricane
KW - predictability
KW - predictive skill
KW - rapid intensification
KW - tropical cyclone
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84938972873&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84938972873&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/2015GL064609
DO - 10.1002/2015GL064609
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84938972873
VL - 42
SP - 6043
EP - 6050
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
SN - 0094-8276
IS - 14
ER -