A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts

Falko Judt, Shuyi S Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Hurricane surface wind is a key measure of storm intensity. However, a climatology of hurricane winds is lacking to date, largely because hurricanes are relatively rare events and difficult to observe over the open ocean. Here we present a new hurricane wind climatology based on objective surface wind analyses, which are derived from Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer measurements acquired by NOAA WP-3D and U.S. Air Force WC-130J hurricane hunter aircraft. The wind data were collected during 72 aircraft reconnaissance missions into 21 western Atlantic hurricanes from 1998 to 2012. This climatology provides an opportunity to validate hurricane intensity forecasts beyond the simplistic maximum wind speed metric and allows evaluating the predictive skill of probabilistic hurricane intensity forecasts using high-resolution model ensembles. An example of application is presented here using a 1.3km grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting model ensemble forecast of Hurricane Earl (2010).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)6043-6050
Number of pages8
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume42
Issue number14
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 28 2015

Fingerprint

hurricanes
cyclones
climatology
tropical cyclone
forecasting
hurricane
aircraft
high resolution
surface wind
reconnaissance aircraft
forecast
microwave radiometers
microwave radiometer
open ocean
weather
oceans
spacing
wind velocity
grids

Keywords

  • climatology
  • hurricane
  • predictability
  • predictive skill
  • rapid intensification
  • tropical cyclone

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

A new aircraft hurricane wind climatology and applications in assessing the predictive skill of tropical cyclone intensity using high-resolution ensemble forecasts. / Judt, Falko; Chen, Shuyi S.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, No. 14, 28.07.2015, p. 6043-6050.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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