A model of the 2014 ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing

Glenn Webb, Cameron Browne, Xi Huo, Ousmane Seydi, Moussa Seydi, Pierre Magal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Scopus citations

Abstract

A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
JournalPLoS Currents
Volume7
Issue numberOUTBREAKS
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 30 2015

Keywords

  • Ebola

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)

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