### Abstract

Fault tree analysis is one of the key approaches used to analyze the reliability of critical systems. Fault trees are usually analyzed using mathematical approaches or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This paper presents a Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS) approach in which the uncertain data is generated by the MCS approach. The FMCS approach is applied to the Weibull probability distribution which is widely been used in the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Using the fuzzy arithmetic, times to failure (TTF) of the components are generated. These results are processed by a kind of fault tree (e.g. time-to-failure tree) to produce the TTF of the whole system. The FMCS can estimate the TTF of the system which contains components that fail gradually (e.g. degradation). A comparison between the FMCS and the traditional MCS approaches shows that the time order of the FMCS approach is equal to the multiplication of the time order of the traditional MCS by a fuzzy number's representing the array length.

Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium |

Pages | 428-433 |

Number of pages | 6 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - Dec 1 2006 |

Event | 2006 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06 - Newport Beach, CA, United States Duration: Jan 23 2006 → Jan 26 2006 |

### Other

Other | 2006 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06 |
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Country | United States |

City | Newport Beach, CA |

Period | 1/23/06 → 1/26/06 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- Fault tree
- Fuzzy logic
- Fuzzy probability
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Reliability analysis
- Time-to-failure tree

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Engineering(all)

### Cite this

*Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium*(pp. 428-433). [1677412] https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677412

**A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation approach for fault tree analysis.** / Zonouz, Saman Aliari; Miremadi, Seyed Ghassem.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

*Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.*, 1677412, pp. 428-433, 2006 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06, Newport Beach, CA, United States, 1/23/06. https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677412

}

TY - GEN

T1 - A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation approach for fault tree analysis

AU - Zonouz, Saman Aliari

AU - Miremadi, Seyed Ghassem

PY - 2006/12/1

Y1 - 2006/12/1

N2 - Fault tree analysis is one of the key approaches used to analyze the reliability of critical systems. Fault trees are usually analyzed using mathematical approaches or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This paper presents a Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS) approach in which the uncertain data is generated by the MCS approach. The FMCS approach is applied to the Weibull probability distribution which is widely been used in the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Using the fuzzy arithmetic, times to failure (TTF) of the components are generated. These results are processed by a kind of fault tree (e.g. time-to-failure tree) to produce the TTF of the whole system. The FMCS can estimate the TTF of the system which contains components that fail gradually (e.g. degradation). A comparison between the FMCS and the traditional MCS approaches shows that the time order of the FMCS approach is equal to the multiplication of the time order of the traditional MCS by a fuzzy number's representing the array length.

AB - Fault tree analysis is one of the key approaches used to analyze the reliability of critical systems. Fault trees are usually analyzed using mathematical approaches or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This paper presents a Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS) approach in which the uncertain data is generated by the MCS approach. The FMCS approach is applied to the Weibull probability distribution which is widely been used in the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Using the fuzzy arithmetic, times to failure (TTF) of the components are generated. These results are processed by a kind of fault tree (e.g. time-to-failure tree) to produce the TTF of the whole system. The FMCS can estimate the TTF of the system which contains components that fail gradually (e.g. degradation). A comparison between the FMCS and the traditional MCS approaches shows that the time order of the FMCS approach is equal to the multiplication of the time order of the traditional MCS by a fuzzy number's representing the array length.

KW - Fault tree

KW - Fuzzy logic

KW - Fuzzy probability

KW - Monte Carlo simulation

KW - Reliability analysis

KW - Time-to-failure tree

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34250200106&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=34250200106&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677412

DO - 10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677412

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:34250200106

SN - 1424400074

SN - 9781424400072

SP - 428

EP - 433

BT - Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium

ER -