A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation approach for fault tree analysis

Saman Aliari Zonouz, Seyed Ghassem Miremadi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

26 Scopus citations

Abstract

Fault tree analysis is one of the key approaches used to analyze the reliability of critical systems. Fault trees are usually analyzed using mathematical approaches or Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This paper presents a Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation (FMCS) approach in which the uncertain data is generated by the MCS approach. The FMCS approach is applied to the Weibull probability distribution which is widely been used in the analysis of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Using the fuzzy arithmetic, times to failure (TTF) of the components are generated. These results are processed by a kind of fault tree (e.g. time-to-failure tree) to produce the TTF of the whole system. The FMCS can estimate the TTF of the system which contains components that fail gradually (e.g. degradation). A comparison between the FMCS and the traditional MCS approaches shows that the time order of the FMCS approach is equal to the multiplication of the time order of the traditional MCS by a fuzzy number's representing the array length.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAnnual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06 - 2006 Proceedings
Pages428-433
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2006
Event2006 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06 - Newport Beach, CA, United States
Duration: Jan 23 2006Jan 26 2006

Publication series

NameProceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
ISSN (Print)0149-144X

Other

Other2006 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06
CountryUnited States
CityNewport Beach, CA
Period1/23/061/26/06

Keywords

  • Fault tree
  • Fuzzy logic
  • Fuzzy probability
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Reliability analysis
  • Time-to-failure tree

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

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  • Cite this

    Zonouz, S. A., & Miremadi, S. G. (2006). A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo simulation approach for fault tree analysis. In Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, RAMS'06 - 2006 Proceedings (pp. 428-433). [1677412] (Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium). https://doi.org/10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677412