A Decade of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME): Research, Application, and Future Directions

Emily J. Becker, Ben P. Kirtman, Michelle L’Heureux, Ángel G. Muñoz, Kathy Pegion

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Ten years, 16 fully coupled global models, and hundreds of research papers later, the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) monthly-to-seasonal prediction system is looking ahead to its second decade. The NMME comprises both real-time, initialized predictions and a substantial research database; both retrospective and real-time forecasts are archived and freely available for research and development. Many U.S.-based and international entities, both private and public, use NMME data for regional or otherwise tailored forecasts. The system’s built-in evolution, with new models gradually replacing older ones, has been demonstrated to gradually improve the skill of 2-m temperature and sea surface temperature, although precipitation prediction remains a difficult problem. This paper reviews some of the NMME-based contributions to seasonal climate prediction research and applications, progress on scientific understanding of seasonal prediction and multimodel ensembles, and new techniques. Several prediction-oriented aspects are explored, including model representation of observed trends and the underprediction of below-average temperature. We discuss potential new directions, such as higher-resolution models, hybrid statistical–dynamical techniques, or prediction of environmental hazards such as coastal flooding and the risk of mosquito-borne diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)E973-E995
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume103
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2022

Keywords

  • Climate models
  • Climate prediction
  • Ensembles
  • Forecasting techniques
  • Seasonal forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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